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2012/04/01

Kvalificerade gissningar

Häromdagen rapporterade media om en statistisk undersökning av 34 000 par som hade fått barn år 2000. Nu hade man följt upp om paren fortfarande var ihop eller om de separerat. Det visade sig att 27 procent hade valt att separera.

Där har vi fakta.

I statistiken går det att urskilja ett antal mönster. De som varit ihop kort tid innan de fick barn tenderade att separera mer än andra. Par där kvinnan var äldre än mannen eller där en av parterna hade utländskt ursprung var också mer benägna att separera.

Där har vi mer fakta.

Men DN kan ju inte bara rapportera om detta utan går glatt vidare i ett kvasivetenskapligt resonerande om vad det här kan bero på. De letar upp en psykoterapeut som glatt ställer upp och bidrar med några förklaringar. Separationerna beror på att föräldrarna var omogna och att relationer med äldre kvinnor och yngre män inte stämmer överens med samhällsnormer. Värt att notera är de små orden "tror" och "kanske" som smugit sig in i texten. För det här är inte längre fakta. Det är åsikter och spekulationer med ett vetenskapligt värde som är noll.

Det finns inget i studien som styrker det som psykoterapeuten säger eftersom det bara är en kvantitativ studie som inte alls undersökt VAD separationerna beror på utan bara ATT de har hänt. Att då som DN gör glatt lägga ut texten med nonsens är bedrägligt och bidrar inte alls till att förklara hur verkligheten ser ut. Psykoterapeuten menar säkert väl och har kanske sina erfarenheter att luta sig emot men tyvärr är det inte vetenskapliga fakta för det.

Det är trams.

36 kommentarer:

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